Feasta (Foundation for the economics of Sustainability) har en intressant artikel på sitt forum om den grekiska krisen. Dom slår på trumman stort, men jag tror ändå mer på deras svartmålning än på EU-politikernas skönmålning.
The markets are right
So the markets are quite right to be sceptical about the country’s ability to handle its debts. The fact is, the Greek rescue package is not to rescue the Greeks. It will do them immense harm. Instead, it is to rescue the European banks who ignored the country’s limited earning capacity and loaned it €143 billion. Almost half of this, €59 billion, came from banks in France and €34 billion from their German counterparts. A Greek default would inevitably mean expensive bank bail-outs for both countries’ taxpayers.
Another reason for the bail-out offer was the nightmare scenario that, if Greece was left to collapse, the other over-indebted eurozone economies, Portugal, Ireland and Spain, would almost certainly collapse too. This would mean such a massive mark-down on the €1,600 billion owed by the four countries to EU banks that the entire European banking system would implode. According to the Bank for International Settlements, Germany is exposed for about a quarter of the total amount, France 18% and Britain 17%.
Essentially, then, the bail-out offer is an attempt to buy time in which to rescue not just the euro but the EU itself. This rescue will only work if, rather than lending more to countries in difficulties, it cuts the entire eurozone’s debt-to-GDP levels rapidly and massively. [—]