”It seems we are screwed 1000 ways”

The oildrum.com publicerar Near-Term Systemic Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production — Contexts and Implications

Sammanfattningsvis kan man säga att det här kapitlet handlar om hur svårt det skulle vara att försöka ställa om hela det ekonomiska systemet, matproduktion under tiden det kör och under tiden vi är beroende av det. Kanske är texten mer än lovligt negativ(, är det moraliskt försvarbart?). Under extremt tryck undrar jag om inte världens ledande regeringar skulle kunna stuva om den finansiella kartan rejält. USA skulle t.ex. kunna göra en deal med Kina om USA:s statsskuld.

Memmel kommenterar angående civilisations komplexitet:

Yeah its a bit amazing in a sense. This brings out something I’ve realized as I study complexity. You notice that it seems we are screwed 1000 ways.

What seems to happen is that complex systems are effectively computation engines i.e they think. Thus once complexity reaches a certain level as the system becomes stressed its capable of finding a way out if you will to grow and increase more/longer despite the stress. Basically as its forced it finds one more way to cheat death or collapse if you will. Almost all the rosy scenarios are based in expectation of yet one more hole to fine in the array of problems facing us.

However the problem is this is certain to work until it does not i.e in the end the system is assured to have found all the ways out there are no more holes in the fence or cracks to wiggle through. Thus the many times it seems to have dodged certain failure to live a bit longer absolutely ensure that eventually its impossible to dodge.

So my little theory of complexity suggest that the system only collapse in the end when it has really used up all its routes out and its the end.

Next one additional factor that suggests this is the big one is one reason it runs out of routes or paths is because past dodges or moves eventually cut off other paths. In other words by escaping in the past in certain ways the system also cuts off hope of future escapes. And obvious one for us is the move to fiat currencies effectively ensures there is no real way to move back.

This additional set of constraints i.e past tricks working to block future moves is important as this is the signature you would get right at the end when no moves are left.

Thus complex systems seem to move steadily towards final collapse by creating ever larger moral hazards and ever more serious repercussions from past moral hazards until they literally cannot lie about their state. Eventually the system has to effectively settle its accounts or debts if you will not because it suddenly becomes moral or righteous simply because there is no way left to lie that makes a difference.

If we are not at the edge we are within spitting distance and if you look deeply enough it seems clear that we are already well past the edge and have been over it for some time. The last decade has really been simply a game of rearranging the chairs to make it seem as if something was happening.

Indeed that brings up the last signal of collapse that I think of right at the end the system behaves as a strange attractor moving rapidly around in a complex path but steadily spiraling inwards.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attractor

It looks complex and crazy etc but if you recognize that the system is not really expanding but now rotating about a center then you have the final signal that its on its death legs.

For our economy a big one of the circles is you will is the fact that globalization generaly was simply a shifting of jobs from one region to another. Basically no net new growth happened what growth there was was the cost of shifting things around. As jobs left one region to move to another a lot of frantic activity happened but no real growth. Growing debt served to stave of the day of accounting but did not change the fact that is was simple a big circle.

Thus way to many of my key signatures are now present for me to believe we are not at the end of our rope. Thats not to say that some more frantic games may not delay things but I’d suspect we are now talking about years at most not decades. Indeed it could even be months no real telling.

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